Today's chart is from Ben Carlson’s “A Wealth of Common Sense” which shows the S&P 500’s rolling returns for 3, 10, 20, and 30 year periods going all the way back to 1926.
You’ll note the volatility of three year returns in blue, but it immediately smooths out for the 10+ year returns. In fact, there are only three periods over the last 94 years where the 10 year return was negative and the annual average return over that period was 9.2%.
The past is no predictor, but as Ben states, “Do you really want to bet against human ingenuity, corporate profits and the human desire for progress?”